2026 Predictions & Trends For Books

 

There are Ivy League, highly-paid futurist consultants out there pouring over data and making predictions about the future. There are also $10 crystal ball palm readers making their forecasts.

My accuracy of seeing into the near-term future for the book industry probably rests between them, so here I go with my 2026 prognostications. 

In order to look forward, we sometimes need to look backwards and reflect on predictions past. About a decade ago, the “experts” were certain these things would happen – and none of them came true: 

·         Print books would no longer dominate and would barely exist.

·         Indie bookstores will all get swallowed up by amazon and the book chains.

·         Books will be multimedia, with video and images and links sprinkled throughout the digital text.

·         Piracy will kill off publishing profitability.

·         Authors will never pay for legitimate book reviews.

·         Few authors will choose to seek a traditional publisher if they can just self-publish quickly and keep the lion’s share of the profits.  

Every single one of the above never materialized.  

Here is what 2026 could bring us: 

1.       AI — It is hard to make a good prediction about a rapidly developing technology. It would be like making bold predictions 35 years ago when the Internet was in its infancy, or in the 1960s, when people predicted flying cabs would be commonplace and vacations to the moon would be like going to Disneyland. But we can safely say that people will use AI, like any other tool, to get an advantage on those who don’t. It can be used for writing, editing, marketing, and sales efforts, though it is in its infancy right now. 

2.       Election Year — This always produces a ton of books by or about candidates, political issues, and current events. Look for some of these titles to dominate bestseller lists. 

3.       Romance — This will continue to be the most popular genre in the world of books. Sales for many years have proven that people want romance books, whether it is a traditional love story, erotica, LGBTQ romance, or other love-sex story scenarios. 

4.       Barnes & Noble Is Back! -- The company intends to open at least 60 new stores in 2026, in addition to what they opened in 2025 and 2024. They reportedly want to get back up to 1000 stores after falling into the 600 area. 

5.       Muslim Politics – With wins in major cities by Muslim candidates for political office, including for NYC mayor, we will see more books on Muslim political activism. The Free Palestinian movement in the US also will lead to more books. 

6.       Socialism – Seattle and New York City just elected socialists to run their cities. Is this a growing trend? Look for more books on saving capitalism as well as spreading socialism. 

7.       Middle East – With peace, however fragile, we will start to see more books about the fate of that region. Look for more books on anti-Semitism, Israel, and Islamophobia.  

8.       Audiobooks Rising – Look at the digital lending stats for libraries in 2024:

E-books: 366.2 million books

Audiobooks: 278.3 million books 

I expect the gap to narrow in 2026 and audiobooks will continue to surge. In the consumer market, digital audio sales have surpassed those of ebooks. Audiobook sales grew 23.8% in 2024 from the prior year, and now account for 11.3% of the book marketplace vs 10% for ebooks.  

9.       Indie Bookstore Growth --The American Booksellers Association (ABA) membership reached its highest level in over 20 years, with more than 2,400 member companies operating over 2,800 individual stores. Interest in opening new stores is high, with around 192 additional bookstores planned to open within the next few years, as reported by the ABA in early 2025  

10.   Book Publisher Consolidation – In a pro-business governmental environment. More mergers are often seen. Will that be the case for the book industry? The Big 5 seems like they will not try to take each other over, but each is shopping for smaller competitors to devour.  

11.   Tariffs — Regardless of your politics or whether they actually help bring back manufacturing jobs to America, they are a tax on American businesses and consumers. This can only have a negative impact on the book publishing industry, raising the cost of doing business and costing Americans money that could be used to purchase books. They are here to stay until probably middle of next year. Then, you will see rollbacks of the tariffs in the election year.  

12.   DEI Book Sales– There has been a backlash against DEI, at least from the Trump administration, and that has trickled down to corporations and college campuses. As a result, we are likely to see fewer sales of books pertaining to DEI.  

13.   Publishing Industry -- The book industry is dominated by women. 74% of all workers are women and at least 75% of all books purchased are by women. This gender imbalance seeps into who gets published and what is written about and how it is written. If the industry included more straight men, an underserved community of readers would be better served and the industry would grow. Nothing seems to be in place to expect that to happen anytime soon.  

14.   Immigration – Immigration is way down under Trump and deportations are increasing, including self-deportations. What this means is fewer people will need to learn English as a second language but it also means there will be fewer potential book customers. I am not saying whether immigration is good or bad, just that, as a matter of fact, book sales are not helped when fewer customers are in the country.  

15.   Literacy – The numbers are not pretty. We still have tens of millions who are illiterate and tens of millions more who are marginal readers. Something like 1 in 4 adults had not read a single book last year – that was not for work or school. To grow book sales, we need to grow the number of book readers out there. Based on the latest reading scores at elementary schools, the future is not going to improve in this regard.  

16.   Competition — Every year, several million new books enter the marketplace, adding to the 50 million books already available to consumers. As a result, more marketing is needed for a book to gain traction and have a chance at survival.  

17.   Pricing — One day there will be a wakeup call to publishers and writers to stop giving away so many free books or listing their e-book at such low prices. It is not good for the industry overall. Will this be the year that things change? Probably not.  

18.   Economy — Lower interest rates are coming, which stimulates the economy, but the number of new jobs created is in the toilet, in part due to AI, tariffs, and other factors. I expect Trump, who ran on the economy, to do something to get the nation on the right track in an election year. I predict 2026 will be a good year, financially, for the book world.  

19.   Book Bans — As long as Republicans run the majority of state governments and all three branches of the federal government, you will continue to see more book bans without reversal.  

20.   Library Budgets — The federal budget for libraries is primarily distributed through the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS), which provides grants to states, libraries, and museums. With a budget of about $280 million in FY 2024 and $313 million in FY 2023 for the agency, proposed budgets for FY 2026 suggest drastic cuts or the elimination of the IMLS entirely. Federal funding is a small fraction of the total library budget but supports critical services like technology access, literacy programs, and resources for job seekers. Trump seems to be eager to cut all things literary arts. 

21.   Department of Education — This department bought lots of books. That is now nearly gone. It has been gutted to the point it is useless.  

22.   NFTs – Remember all of the excitement about how NFTs would revolutionize publishing or that crypto would be used to buy books? Nothing of the sort has happened. You don’t even see anyone talking about NFTs. What a bullshit nothing burger that was. Nothing new will develop on this front this year.

Do You Need Book Marketing Help?

Brian Feinblum can be reached at brianfeinblum@gmail.com  He is available to help authors like you to promote your story, sell your book, and grow your brand. He has over 30 years of experience in successfully helping thousands of authors in all genres. Let him be your advocate, teacher, and motivator!

 

About Brian Feinblum

This award-winning blog has generated over 5,250,000 page views. With 5,400+ posts over the past 14 years, it was named one of the best book marketing blogs  by BookBaby  http://blog.bookbaby.com/2013/09/the-best-book-marketing-blogs  and recognized by Feedspot in 2021 and 2018 as one of the top book marketing blogs. It was also named by www.WinningWriters.com as a "best resource.”  Copyright 2025.

 

For the past three decades, Brian Feinblum has helped thousands of authors. He formed his own book publicity firm in 2020. Prior to that, for 21 years as the head of marketing for the nation’s largest book publicity firm, and as the director of publicity at two independent presses, Brian has worked with many first-time, self-published, authors of all genres, right along with best-selling authors and celebrities such as: Dr. Ruth, Mark Victor Hansen, Joseph Finder, Katherine Spurway, Neil Rackham, Harvey Mackay, Ken Blanchard, Stephen Covey, Warren Adler, Cindy Adams, Todd Duncan, Susan RoAne, John C. Maxwell, Jeff Foxworthy, Seth Godin, and Henry Winkler.

 

His writings are often featured in The Writer and IBPA’s The Independent (https://pubspot.ibpa-online.org/article/whats-needed-to-promote-a-book-successfully). He was recently interviewed by the IBPA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0BhO9m8jbs

 

He hosted a panel on book publicity for Book Expo America several years ago, and has spoken at ASJA, BookCAMP, Independent Book Publishers Association Sarah Lawrence College, Nonfiction Writers Association, Cape Cod Writers Association, Willamette (Portland) Writers Association, APEX, Morgan James Publishing, and Connecticut Authors and Publishers Association. He served as a judge for the 2024 IBPA Book Awards.

 

His letters-to-the-editor have been published in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, New York Post, NY Daily News, Newsday, The Journal News (Westchester) and The Washington Post. His first published book was The Florida Homeowner, Condo, & Co-Op Association Handbook.  It was featured in The Sun Sentinel and Miami Herald.

 

Born and raised in Brooklyn, he now resides in Westchester with his wife, two kids, and Ferris, a black lab rescue dog, and El Chapo, a pug rescue dog.

 

You can connect with him at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianfeinblum/ or https://www.facebook.com/brian.feinblum