128 Billion to 1: Ten Steps to Beat the
Odds and Win Your NCAA Tourney Office Pool
Mike Nemeth
is a novelist, blogger, former AAU basketball coach and former Information
Technology executive. He is also a fan of NCAA basketball, and his passion
inspired him to write his new book, 128
Billion to 1. Nemeth is known for his crime thriller, Defiled, which became a bestselling book on Amazon. Mike now lives
in the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, where he enjoys spending time with his
wife, Angie, and their rescue dog, Sophie. Please see: https://nemosnumbers.com
1. What really inspired you to write your book, to force
you from taking an idea or experience and conveying it into a book?
In 2003 I watched
my under-respected alma mater, the University of Wisconsin, defeat a team the
experts considered far superior to win the Big Ten championship. None of the
experts on TV could explain the outcome using traditional statistics and
inside-the-box thinking. Intrigued, I did a forensic study of the game and
discovered that traditional statistics and inside-the-box thinking misrepresent
hundreds of games and dozens of teams every season! As a hobby I collected
statistics and tracked the experts’ erroneous predictions for thirteen years
and eventually realized that the game simply needed a new set of statistics to
properly explain outcomes and accurately rank teams relative to one another.
The ah ha moment led to the realization that diehard basketball fans don’t make
poor guesses when filling their March Madness brackets; they make poorly
informed guesses. I believe all fans should know how and why they go wrong.
2. What is it about and who is your targeted reader?
The book is about
two concepts that travel hand-in-hand. The first is that a correct set of
statistics better explains the game and better reveals the relative strength in
the tournament field. The second is that the tournament is not designed to
reveal the best team in the country; it is designed to produce chaos and reward
a fortunate survivor with the trophy. When fans take these two facts into
consideration they will improve their chances of winning their office pool. My
target reader is anyone who fills a March madness bracket.
3. What do you hope will be the everlasting thoughts for
readers who finish your book? What should remain with them long after putting
it down?
Beyond its
relevance to basketball, I hope the book makes readers aware that over one
hundred years of conventional thinking can easily be overthrown by a little
critical investigation and simple logic. If true in basketball, where else
might that be true?
4. What advice or words of wisdom do you have for fellow
writers?
Writing is
easiest, most rewarding, most beneficial, when the author is making the reader
aware of a truth or an injustice or a social problem. Writing with a purpose
should be the goal of all writers. So, pick a cause and write about it. That’s
when we’re meaningful to society.
5. What trends in the book world do you see and where do
you think the book publishing industry is heading?
The obvious trend
is toward an oversupplied marketplace with too many books, too few readers, too
little time and not enough profits. Most of us write because we are compelled
by some invisible force to do so, but most of us would also hope that someone
other than our moms would read what we write. I also see a resurgence of
independent booksellers who provide access to more diverse titles than do the
major chain stores.
6. What great challenges did you have in writing your
book?
The biggest
challenge was to find a medium and format that suited the material. An
explanation of the new statistics was first published as an article in the New
York Times in 2011 under the title The
Missing Ingredient but the article length could not do the whole story
justice. On the other hand, the full story, now published as 128 Billion to 1, was too short to
qualify as a trade paperback. Luckily, Morgan James Publishing has introduced a
Minibuk format, a paperback of around
one hundred pages that can readily be displayed at checkout counters. Voila! 128 Billion to 1 had a path to market.
7. If people can only buy one book this month, why should
it be yours?
128 Billion to 1
is short, fun to read, relatively less expensive than other books, and is
timely. The official release date is December 12, 2017 which means it can be
read before March Madness brackets have to be filled. It also makes a great
Holiday present for that person who already has everything else.
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Brian Feinblum’s
insightful views, provocative opinions, and interesting ideas expressed in this
terrific blog are his alone and not that of his employer or anyone else. You
can – and should -- follow him on Twitter @theprexpert and email him
at brianfeinblum@gmail.com. He feels much more important when discussed in
the third-person. This is copyrighted by BookMarketingBuzzBlog © 2018. Born and
raised in Brooklyn, he now resides in Westchester. His writings are often
featured in The Writer and IBPA’s Independent.
This was named one of the best book marketing blogs by Book Baby http://blog.bookbaby.com/2013/09/the-best-book-marketing-blogs and recognized by Feedspot in 2018 as one of the
top book marketing blogs. Also named by WinningWriters.com as a "best
resource."
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